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A week is a long time in politics, British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once exclaimed. This has certainly been true of the 2024 U.S. presidential election where one astonishing event has followed another. Joe Biden unintentionally revealed in a debate with Donald Trump on 27 June that he is senile. Trump was shot on 13 July but miraculously escaped with only a minor injury of one ear. Biden was on 21 July forced out of the race by the leadership of the Democrat Party, mainly Barack Obama. Vice President Kamala Harris is the new Democrat candidate, certainly invigorating the campaign, but having established a far-left record as Senator from California.
Breach of Trust
Each of those four events is in itself historic, even momentous. While it was obvious to many that Biden was senile, the Democrat leadership, including Kamala Harris, and the mainstream media systematically tried to hide this from the public. On 6 March, MSNBC television host (and former Republican) Joe Scarborough looked his audience in the eye and exclaimed: ‘Start your tape right now because I’m about to tell you the truth. And ‘F’ you if you can’t handle the truth. This version of Biden, intellectually, analytically, is the best Biden ever.’ On 4 June, two Wall Street Journal reporters published an article under the telling title ‘Behind Closed Doors, Biden Shows Signs of Slipping’. They were widely criticised, even reviled, in the mainstream media. Scarborough for example dismissed their article as a ‘Trump hit piece’. But the debate between Biden and Trump simply revealed the truth. Biden’s senility was there for all to see. As in Andersen’s famous fable, the Emperor had no clothes. What is however problematic is that the Democrat leadership, the White House staff and the mainstream media connived to hide what was known to them at the time and what became obvious to others in the debate: that Biden is not fit to run for president, or indeed to be president, of the most powerful country in the world. This was the mainstream media’s breach of trust.
Security Failure
The assassination attempt on Trump was a major security failure. Four presidents of the United States have been killed in office, and Trump, a former president and now a presidential candidate, was a hate figure to many Americans. Biden’s best-known comment on him was relatively mild compared to what others have said: ‘Donald Trump is a convicted criminal who is only out for himself.’ I have already analysed how Trump’s political enemies in the legal establishment misconstrued a misdemeanour (not registering a payment correctly) as a felony (trying to affect an election by lying or otherwise misleading the public). Incidentally, by trying to hide Biden’s senility from the public the people around him may have been guilty of precisely this felony. Be that as it may, Trump certainly needed protection by the Secret Service, although a Democrat congressman, Benny Thompson, had introduced a bill which would have removed such protection from him. But the would-be assassin was able to shoot at Trump from a nearby rooftop, after having been identified earlier as a potential threat. It was a close call. Indeed, not only was Trump wounded but the gunman killed one rallygoer while two were seriously injured. Trump however impressed many by his defiant gesture to the crowd after the assassination attempt. Unsurprisingly, Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle had to resign. Her main interest in office had been to ensure that at least 30 per cent of Secret Service agents were women.
A Public-Spirited Fox?
The third astonishing event was that Biden quit the race. This he obviously did very much against his own will, and that of his family, especially his ambitious wife, the Lady Macbeth of New Jersey. He was forced out, apparently mainly by Barack Obama. I find it hard to believe that Biden did this just because opinion polls suggested that Trump would beat him. He is an old fox, and an old fox is not easily persuaded to give way. It is likely that something happened behind closed doors to make him change his mind. I have suggested two possibilities: One is a plausible threat that the Democrats would invoke the 25th Amendment which would have meant his removal from office because of his inability to discharge his duties. In his lucid moments, Biden certainly would not have wanted that. The other and less likely possibility is a plausible threat that the legal establishment would momentarily turn their attention away from Trump and to him and especially to his family, known to have several bank account overseas. Biden’s family certainly would not have wanted that. But perhaps I am wrong and the old and wily fox just became public-spirited.
The Most Left-Wing Senator
And now, suddenly, Kamala Harris will be the presidential candidate of the Democrat Party. While the New York Times describes her as a ‘pragmatic moderate’, an organisation which tracks congressional voting found that Harris was the most left-wing senator of all, surpassing even Bernie Sanders. The page with this information was quietly taken down when it became clear that she would become the Democrat nominee. As Vice President, Harris was in charge of border problems. By any standard, this has been a dismal failure. There was a huge increase in illegal immigration after Biden replaced Trump as president. But now the mainstream media in the United States is downplaying this assignment of hers. Moreover, Harris seems not to understand any economics. She believes she can solve a problem by throwing money at it. She boasts about ‘dropping a trillion dollars on the streets of America over the next 10 years on the climate crisis in resilience, in adaptation, and being a world leader on an investment in a clean energy economy’. She calls for higher taxes on income, capital gains, inheritance and financial transactions. Trump reduced the top rate of income tax from 39.6 per cent to 37 per cent. She wants to return to the old rate. Trump reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 to 21 per cent. She wants, again, to return to the old rate. She also wants to end private insurance in America. She seems to believe that she can make the poor richer by making the rich poorer, not by creating opportunities for the poor to escape from poverty.
Trump as President
These four dramatic events require a much closer scrutiny than the mainstream media or the left-wing university faculties are able and willing to undertake. Instead, they devote most of their critical facilities to Donald Trump. To many Europeans, Trump surely appears to be the embodiment of what is least likeable about American society. While I did not support him in 2016, he was however a much better president than I had expected. He cut taxes, appointed competent people to the Supreme Court, and did not start any war (his sheer unpredictability unnerved the enemies of the United States). In fact, his government mediated the historic Abraham Accords between Israel on the one hand and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on the other. Trump also effectively expressed, or perhaps used for his own purposes, the understandable opposition of many Americans to an open southern border. Nevertheless, I would take issue with his economic protectionism. It has been demonstrated over and over again, in theory as well as practice, that prosperity and opportunity are created by the division of labour and free trade. The immense size of the domestic American market however ensures that many fruits of trade and the division of labour can be enjoyed by American consumers.
Trump on Ukraine and Israel
I would not be as concerned as many Europeans are about Trump’s foreign policy. He boasts that he would solve the war in Ukraine in one day. But he is a businessman who prides himself on his negotiating skills. Surely he knows that he has to negotiate from strength, not weakness. At some point in time, the Russians and the Ukrainians have to stop fighting, and it is crucial that at that very point Ukraine has regained as much as possible of her territory. Therefore, before any deal, Ukraine has to be assisted so unsparingly and convincingly that it makes a real difference at the negotiating table. Trump also understands that Israel has to be allowed to win the war against Hamas.
The Wolves in the Shadows
After the debate between Biden and Trump and the assassination attempt on Trump, it was almost certain that Trump would win the presidential election. With the replacement of Biden by Harris, it is not so certain. Undeniably, she brings some fresh air into a campaign grown stale. She will enjoy the support of many for what she is, not for what she has done. But in the shadows the wolves are watching, Xi in China, Putin in Russia, the Iranian imams and the Kim dynasty. Meanwhile, the American drama is still unfolding. Every week brings new surprises.