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Confirmation of Iran’s delivery of ballistic missiles to Russia would turn the conflict in Ukraine into a global security issue with consequences beyond Europe’s borders. For the United States and the European Union, it would mean facing not only a military but also an economic and diplomatic threat, requiring a coordinated, multi-level response to contain the growing assertiveness of the Russia-Iran bloc.
France, Germany and the UK have imposed sanctions on Iran for supplying missiles to Russia, which is using them in its war against Ukraine. The three countries see the move as a serious escalation that could threaten European security. In addition to cancelling air transport agreements with Iran, the countries intend to target individuals and entities involved in Iran’s missile programme. The EU and US are also considering further sanctions against Iran, while Ukraine has threatened to break off diplomatic relations with Tehran.
Iran has categorically denied allegations that it has transferred ballistic missiles to Russia. According to a senior Revolutionary Guards commander, Brigadier General Fazlollah Nozari, these allegations are part of ‘psychological warfare’ and he reiterated that Iran does not support any of the parties involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. These statements came after Western media, such as CNN and the Wall Street Journal, reported that Iran would supply short-range missiles to Russia, fuelling concerns in the West that these missiles would be used in the war in Ukraine.
However, the European Union has deemed the information ‘credible’ and is considering further restrictive measures against Iran if the allegations are confirmed. The US has warned that such a move would represent a significant escalation of the conflict, further threatening stability in Ukraine and other regions such as the Middle East.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has confirmed that Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Russia, which are likely to be used against Ukraine in the coming weeks. This exchange strengthens Russia’s ability to strike targets far from the front line, while the use of the new Iranian missiles will be limited to short-range targets. Blinken described this Iran-Russia cooperation as a threat to European security and announced further sanctions against Iran, including in the aviation sector.
A senior Ukrainian official said on Monday that Western allies should allow Ukraine to use the weapons it receives to attack military depots on Russian territory, amid suspicions that Iran is supplying ballistic missiles to support the Kremlin’s war initiative. Western countries supporting Ukraine have been reluctant to allow strikes on Russian soil, fearful of being drawn into a major European conflict, the biggest since the Second World War. But the head of the Ukrainian presidential administration insisted that ‘protection does not mean escalation’. In response to the delivery of ballistic missiles to Russia, it is necessary that Ukraine be allowed to destroy the warehouses where these weapons are stored with Western weapons in order to prevent terrorist attacks,’ Andrii Yermak said via his Telegram channel, without specifying which country was supplying the missiles. Since 2022, Russia has been receiving Iranian-made Shahed drones. The possible delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia has worried Western governments as President Vladimir Putin seeks support from other nations. Commenting on reports of Iranian missiles, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that ‘such information is not always accurate’. He added: ‘Iran is a strategic partner. We are strengthening our economic and trade relations, developing cooperation and dialogue in all possible areas, including the most sensitive ones, and we will continue to do so for the sake of our two peoples.
In Iran, foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani denied that Tehran was supplying missiles to Russia, saying: ‘We categorically reject allegations about Iran’s role in sending weapons to either side of the conflict and consider such allegations to be politically motivated.
On Saturday, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry expressed ‘deep concern’ about the possibility. Iran must permanently cease the supply of weapons to Russia in order to demonstrate concretely, and not just in words, the sincerity of its claims of non-involvement in supporting the Russian war machine,’ it said in a statement.
Over the weekend in London, CIA Director William Burns highlighted the growing and ‘alarming’ defence cooperation between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, warning that these alliances threaten both Ukraine and Western allies in the Middle East.
On Monday, China’s defence ministry announced joint naval and air exercises with Russia scheduled for this month. Although China has not supplied arms directly to Russia, it has provided important economic support, becoming a major buyer of Russian oil and gas. It has also supplied electronics and other goods for both civilian and military purposes.
The possible confirmation of Iranian assistance to Russia with ballistic missiles would further consolidate an alliance involving Russia, Iran and potentially China, creating a revisionist bloc that openly challenges the international order dominated by the US and the EU. This cooperation would be seen as a direct threat to Western security, as it would expand Russia’s military capabilities on the Ukrainian battlefield, with serious consequences for the stability of Eastern Europe. The growing interdependence between Russia and Iran would strengthen the influence of Moscow and Tehran in global geopolitics, undermining Western efforts to isolate both countries through sanctions and diplomatic pressure.
For the US and the EU, confirmation of a missile launch would mean an irreparable rupture in their already fragile relationship with Iran. The US, which is committed to containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, would be forced to abandon any ambitions to revive the nuclear deal (JCPOA). Iran would be seen as a destabilising actor not only in the Middle East but also in the Ukrainian conflict, extending its military involvement far beyond its regional sphere. This could lead to new economic and diplomatic sanctions, further alienating Tehran from the West and pushing it towards closer cooperation with Russia and China.
A major concern would be the destabilisation of the Middle East, where Western allies such as Israel and the Gulf monarchies would view an increasingly assertive Iran on the military front with extreme concern. Military cooperation between Russia and Iran could exacerbate existing tensions in the region, especially if ballistic missile deliveries were perceived as strengthening Iran’s offensive capabilities in the Middle East as well. Israel, in particular, could intensify its operations against Iranian targets, while the Gulf states could seek greater security guarantees from the US and the EU, pushing for a regional military escalation.
Military cooperation between Russia and Iran would put the EU under further energy pressure. Russia, already under sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine, could strengthen its ties with Iran to circumvent economic restrictions by using Iranian channels to sell oil and gas. This would complicate European efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy sources. Moreover, Iran itself, under sanctions, could use this situation to consolidate its position as an alternative energy supplier for countries not aligned with Western policies, thereby increasing geopolitical polarisation in the energy sector.
A Russia strengthened by Iranian military supplies would force NATO, the US and the EU to rethink their defence strategies.
The US and EU may feel compelled to further increase military assistance to Ukraine by providing more sophisticated weapons to counter new ballistic threats. This could lead to an accelerated escalation of the conflict, with the risk of direct involvement of Western powers in the conflict. Moreover, the supply of ballistic missiles would require a missile defence response in Europe, increasing pressure on NATO member states to invest in advanced defence systems.