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The Falling Birth Rate in Europe.
In recent decades, the birth rate in Europe has significantly declined, leading to growing concern about the demographic, economic, and social implications. This was precisely the topic of the first panel of the 2nd Congress on the Family organized by the European Conservatives and Reformists in Croatia.
A panel of distinguished speakers for an equally interesting title: Generations in Balance: effects of aging demographic trends on the European Economy.
The moderator of the event was Domenico Lombardi, Economist and Opinionist, who opened the meeting with a reflection on the annual moment of the “budget law” which, as is usual for each national government, serves to trace the political action of the various government majorities.
The first to speak was the Italian deputy Ylenia Lucaselli, Group Leader of FdI in the budget committee, who wanted to underline how the main intention of the Italian government is to guarantee the possibility for all young couples to be able to combine work commitments with those of the family. One of the main reasons why new families are being formed later and later is precisely that of being forced to choose between continuing a career or starting a family. “Everything must start from a cultural revolution,” says Ylenia Lucaselli. Today the fear of losing one’s job prevails, of not being able to afford a mortgage to buy a house or a new car.
“We have focused, in these two years of Meloni’s government, on creating new job opportunities and by reducing taxes increasing average wages. There is a need to support new families with all those things that go beyond traditional policies. We must be by their side all the time they are raising their children so that future generations no longer have to fear giving birth to new lives, risking their working lives,” continued the Italian MP.
The phenomenon of declining birth rates is particularly evident in the Southern countries of the European Union. In general, over the last 50 years, life expectancy has increased by about 10 years on average throughout the European Union, with a constant decline in the mortality rate thanks to innovations in the medical and healthcare sector, thus marking a fairly fertile living condition that has not, however, favored new births: only a few provinces in the Eastern countries (Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and Hungary) or Scandinavia (Sweden and Denmark) have a higher share than the European average of young people between 20 and 34, in the paradox of also being among the areas with the lowest birth rates.
The birth rate, according to Eurostat data, remains quite low throughout Europe: in 2021 the average value was 1.53 births per woman, with notable differences between the 1.84 children per woman of French mothers and the 1.13 births per woman of Maltese mothers. Italian women stopped at 1.25 births per woman, who in 2022 gave birth to around 393,000 children, down 1.7% compared to the previous year.
The most scientific and statistical part is precisely the theme on which Max Rangeley, from the United Kingdom, Editor and Manager of “The Cobden Centre” focused: “In the south and east of the world, the demographics of the population are different compared to that of Europe. There are nations that reach an index of over 5.5 children per woman”. “It is above all interesting, from an economic point of view, to see the decline that is being traced generation after generation”. His warning, however, was not limited to the numerical part, what he proposes is not to stop at an aseptic and mathematical reading of the problem but to look beyond how deep this phenomenon goes into society.
The problem of the declining birth rate involves all European populations and it is expected that, by 2030, there will be almost 200,000 fewer European births per year compared to 2020. A collapse that obviously depends on a whole series of factors: the socio-economic structure of the population, the level of education, job opportunities, culture, and religious beliefs. In recent years, the phenomenon of eco-anxiety – the fear of having children in a self-destructing world – has led about 60% of the young population to consider the possibility of not having children at all, with 40% also evaluating the environmental impact of a new human on a planet with over 7 billion people. The birth rate crisis, however, raises an even more substantial issue regarding the economic sustainability of social security systems as well as the future workforce.
Professor Emeritus of Political Science from Iceland, Prof. Hannes Gissurarson, immediately made it clear that it is our task, adults but above all those who have roles in government and society, to “bring up the children” referring not only to the hope that every young person has the right to have looking to the future but also to the fear that adults should have in imagining a society that is increasingly aging and will lack workers, consumers, services.
This last topic was his key to understanding: “How can we change this issue into a blessing?”. Forming new families, and having children, means in the market world creating new demand for goods and services. This could trigger a virtuous circle for the free market that would see new production and an increase in consumption, in short, a new inclusion and generational pact between adults and young people.
Also for these reasons, Giorgia Meloni (FdI, ECR) and her Government are implementing a “comprehensive strategy to encourage birth rates, recognizing the demographic crisis as a national priority” begins the Italian parliamentarian of the “Lega” Simona Baldassarre, Lega Head of Family Department. After having created the Ministry for Equal Opportunities with Eugenia Maria Roccella (FdI, ECR), also including in the name the specific delegations to Family and Birth Rate, the Government has provided economic incentives, direct subsidies to families with children, tax breaks for those who decide to have them, reducing the economic burden associated with raising children. Furthermore, policies have been implemented to promote the balance between work life and family environment, such as extended parental leave and flexible working. Something still needs to be done, however, on smart working, a policy increasingly requested by the young population and often considered unsatisfactory by the company side.
“In Europe, a lot of space is given to the energy and ecological transition… but if we don’t have children to populate this country of ours, who will we have to leave it to and who are we working for?” asks the Lega MP rhetorically. “One of the most satisfying things when I was MEP was the intergroup for demography. In the EU treaties, the word demography is only mentioned once. It can’t be like this! We need a specific fund for demography, to help women and work. I am proud that our Italian government is doing a great job on this issue and putting money into concrete measures”.
“I think what Europe has to learn is that demography, and economy, are not feasible” begins Jorge Jraissati, from Venezuela, President of the Economic Inclusion Group, who focused his speech on an aspect that should not be underestimated if we consider that, in addition to the low birth rate, there is a constant and ever-increasing diaspora of young Europeans to other places, mainly the United States. Most young people are forced to leave for economic reasons, as well as academic ambitions. “EU is pushing away entrepreneurs, families, youth, researchers, start-ups (unicorns: 58 founded by Europeans but developed in the US), and the US is embracing them”. And he continues: “If you ask young people over 60% report low salaries. Over 60% are concerned with economic aspects. […] We need to tell them and allow them to become entrepreneurs. Right now, under these conditions, the low growth around 1% won’t allow us to really grow for years. The only option is to invest in them”.
The low birth rate is therefore a complex challenge for Europe, with Italy at the forefront of strategies to overcome it. The initiatives of European conservative governments show a commitment to improving the situation, but success will depend on the ability to implement effective and sustainable policies in the long term. Only through an integrated approach will it be possible to reverse the current trend and ensure a demographically balanced future for our continent.
“We can’t be passive on this topic, we need it to be a catalyst for new thoughtful actions” concludes the well-known Italian economist, Domenico Lombardi.