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A few days ago, Frontex, the European coastguard and border agency, published all the data on illegal crossings in Europe. The picture is good, but it varies depending on the country of first arrival. In general, the decrease for the European Union as a whole is -43% for the reference period from January 2024 to last October. In total, around 191,000 illegal immigrants crossed the continent’s external borders illegally. But the good news mainly concerns the Central Mediterranean and Western Balkans routes. The first route, which links Italy, Malta, Tunisia and Libya, has seen a dramatic drop of 62%. The Central Mediterranean route,” Frontex wrote in its report, “has continued its significant downward trend this year. Between January and September, the number of arrivals on this route fell by 64% to 47,700′. It is also and above all due to the Memoranda of Understanding signed by the European Union and the European Commission under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen, with the decisive support of the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, with the transit countries of the northern part of the African continent. The line taken by Europe is that of stopping at all costs, with a firm hand, the traffickers, the boatmen, who, according to the impartial data published by the local authorities, have so far been stopped in their thousands since the protocols came into force, in July 2023 for the one signed with Tunisia. The most numerous nationalities on this route are Bangladeshi, Syrian and Tunisian. Even in the Western Balkans, which includes the transit zone made up of countries such as Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, the decrease is drastic: -80% of arrivals from the beginning of the year to October 2024. The dialogue between the European Union and the countries of the Western Balkans is ongoing and is based, in particular, on the strengthening of return policies. The most common nationalities of illegal immigrants in these countries are Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan. These are all the results of what appears to be a new approach by the European Union to migration policy, focusing in particular on the protection of borders, the protection of internal security, the fight against Mediterranean mafias and their trafficking in human beings, and the defence of legal routes to Europe, all in compliance with international and humanitarian law. The European Union also seems to be ready to embrace and open up to so-called “innovative solutions” that could have new positive effects on landings. The protocol signed by the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, and her Albanian counterpart, Edi Rama, provides for a new model of externalisation of borders, whereby illegal migrants intercepted by the Italian Coast Guard in the Mediterranean can be transferred directly to Albania, to two detention centres specially built on Albanian soil but under Italian jurisdiction. There, they will be detained and subjected to a fast-track procedure to determine whether they can be accommodated or must be repatriated. A basic requirement is that the migrant must come from so-called safe countries, which are on the list that the government in Rome draws up and updates on the basis of the humanitarian conditions in the country of origin and many other factors, in order to determine whether it is safe for the citizen to be repatriated. Only male illegal immigrants from a country deemed safe are allowed to enter Albania. The innovation lies in the fact that this is the first agreement by an EU member state to send its migrants to non-EU countries: in this way, migrants will lose the great incentive to land in Europe and then later try to evade controls and lose their traces on the continent. By not even being able to set foot in Europe, as provided for in the agreement between Italy and Albania, migrants lose the incentive to leave and the number of landings decreases. Among the positive effects noted by the Italian authorities, there is also a new phenomenon: migrants who cross the borders illegally do so with identity documents, hoping to identify their origin and thus avoid being transported to Albania. This phenomenon undoubtedly helps the police to better and more quickly identify illegal immigrants, who no longer arrive as complete strangers who are difficult to identify.
Some negative data
However, not all of Europe can smile. The Eastern Mediterranean route did not fare well, with a 14% increase in landings between January and October. The most common nationalities are Syrian, Afghan and Egyptian. The situation in Greece is a flashpoint: thousands of migrants fleeing the Middle East, Africa and Asia pass through Athens, coming mainly from Turkey, with which the Greek government often exchanges accusations about the treatment of its coastguards. The phenomenon of unaccompanied children is very high there, and the authorities have had to respond to fierce accusations of blocking arrivals by sending migrants back to Turkish waters so that they cannot claim asylum, but also by throwing illegal immigrants overboard. It is wrong to target the Greek coastguard. In any case, we are following every report, but I repeat: there is no evidence to support what is being said,’ Pavlos Marinakis, spokesman for the Greek government, told the BBC. The West African route to Spain, particularly the Canary Islands, has seen a significant increase in arrivals, with a 14% rise in landings. The most common nationalities on this route are Mali, Senegal and Morocco. Other data confirms that the route to the Canary Islands is becoming increasingly deadly: according to Ca-Minando Fronteras, the number of deaths at sea there has reached more than 1,000 per month, an increase of almost 700% compared to the first five months of 2023. In Spain, the number of arrivals in 2023 was 18,000; according to data up to 15 August this year, it has reached 31,000. A situation that has even forced the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, to take cover, despite being one of the strongest opponents of a tough policy against illegal immigration: at the end of August, the Socialist leader travelled to Mauritania to sign a memorandum of understanding with Mauritania, similar to the one Italy signed with Tunisia. Immigration is not a problem, it is a necessity that comes with certain problems”, he said, almost trying to hide behind light words what is obvious, a sort of change of approach, at least in intention, even on the part of his government, but forced by the evidence of the facts: the number of landings and deaths at sea will continue to increase if each country, in agreement with the European Union, does not manage to take a stand and equip itself with a dense network of international agreements involving all the players in the field. Especially as there is always the interference of other world superpowers, which are trying to weaken the West from outside by means of hybrid wars.