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The gaze of the EU Member states, as well as that of governments around the world, is certainly pointed at the date of April 2nd 2025. According to the White House, in fact, on that day the reciprocal duties imposed by President Trump will begin, in addition to those set at 25 per cent for Canada and Mexico. Talking about this passage, the tycoon in recent days has used the social Truth to galvanise his supporters, speaking of April 2nd as the moment when the United States (“dear old America”) will be able to take back “money and respect”. Various analyses that have circulated in recent weeks have spoken of these tariffs as a measure that will be part of the new system of US relations with the old continent that the US president seems to want to establish. In particular, there was talk of an instrument that, from the US point of view, could benefit the American economy in the light of ever-increasing global instability. A climate of uncertainty certainly linked to major international crises such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the one in Gaza, but also tied to investments – not only economic, but also of influence – in technologies and raw materials, above all rare earths. Indeed, it should not be forgotten that part of the dialogue between the United States and Ukraine was based precisely on the possibilities of exploiting the deposits in Kiev. This is a rich set of factors, not entirely economic, that would contribute to the tycoon’s strategy in the medium and long term. In this scenario, we must consider the role that China could play on the markets, especially if some EU member states (and not only) were to return to looking insistently to the East.
EUROPE AND TARIFFS
In the meantime, in recent days, several indications have prompted analysts and the press to report on what could be a ‘flexible’ approach to duties by the United States. There could be exceptions regarding specific products, markets or even raw materials, but the list of these specificities (it will also be a question of whether they will be national or generalised) is still unknown and will probably not be clarified before April 2nd itself. It is precisely for this reason that the European Union has so far opted for a more cautious approach, waiting for the start of the duties imposed by Trump and then taking its time (there is talk of two weeks) to announce and launch all the possible economic countermeasures. The difficulty at this juncture is clear, and it is that of being able to speak with one voice in such a sensitive field as exports and the economic measures of individual states. Of course, staking everything on a real wall-to-wall with the United States is certainly not the most astute move to make. Especially if we think of the economic data and international issues weighing on Europe. A hardening in a purely ideological key, a battle of duties and counter-duties against what is still Europe’s historic ally, would lead to nothing concrete. In the worst-case scenario, there would be a real domino effect on duties. Indeed, if we imagine the production and sale of a precision machine, perhaps for use in the civil, technological or medical fields, we are faced with a short-circuit of duties and counter-duties. We can think of this machinery being produced in the United States and exported abroad, but in its construction process there may already have been several costs arising from as many duties. The metal, for example, could come from Canada; imagine a chip available on the Asian market, or European design and software know-how. The final export price of this machinery would then contain the duties applied by the US to foreign suppliers, in addition to those that the EU could impose on the US. A final balance that could greatly increase the final price of the product. The example given so far concerns high technology, but a similar path can be outlined almost for all markets and products that could fall under the Trump-imposed duties. For this reason, more and more countries, while not wanting to move away from relations with their transatlantic ally, are starting to look at other markets, opening up to new paths and partnerships that have yet to be built and defined. Mercosur, the Gulf countries, as well as the Indian market, are certainly places towards which European chancelleries are thinking of orienting their economic relations, especially if after April 2nd the global economic scenario should be heavily affected by the actions put in place by the United States.
THE ITALIAN APPROACH
Against the ideological clash between the two sides of the Atlantic and against the voices of those who would like to erect an even higher wall around the member states of the European Union, the Italian approach to this crisis is precisely that of trying to open up new outlets (without forgetting past relations) for the Made in Italy market. Looking at the statements made in recent days by Italian Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani, we can see that on several occasions he has reiterated how prudence, even before a show of muscles, is the way forward in this delicate conjuncture. The idea is, therefore, to defend and safeguard entrepreneurs and products so that export levels do not fall so low as to fall back into a crisis. At the same time, marginality in this game cannot pay; instead, taking a central role in a rapidly changing international context could be a winning approach. Regardless of the actions that Italian companies may undertake to respond to this possible new crisis, being able to count on a respectable asset and know-how on the international scene, the Italian government is trying to define new outlets and new possibilities on the market, with an export value of approximately EUR 623 billion per year. The gaze is, therefore, on alternative – though not exclusive – markets to that of the United States, subject to (perhaps) too heavy duties. With exports being an important part making up the national gross domestic product, Italy and the other EU Member states certainly have the task of preparing an adequate response to US economic policies, a response consistent with international commitments. This could be done with an eye on exports to markets outside the European Union and alternative to that of the United States. These policies could recognise great opportunities and a very high and untapped economic potential that could bring EU countries back to talk to the US with a different approach. Of course, this does not mean that relations with Trump and the US economy should cease. This is neither possible nor desirable. However, the attention of the Italian economy – and that of the other Member states – should turn to other countries such as the aforementioned India, Canada, Saudi Arabia or Mexico, so vituperated by the tycoon. The study of these economic realities within the Italian government has already begun and was the focus of the recent meeting in Villa Madama chaired by Minister Tajani. The goal, despite the possible crisis in sight, would be to raise the level of Italian-made exports to the historic threshold of EUR 700 billion by the end of Premier Giorgia Meloni’s current legislature. The challenging goal, especially at this juncture, is sought by the Italian government above all in new collaborations and in the stimulation of exports to new and emerging markets, where no duties or ideological preclusions would weigh. Only in this way can the date of April 2nd become an opportunity for growth, even before the beginning of a new stringent crisis.