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In the increasingly tense geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe, Russian propaganda has emerged as a key tool for the Russian Federation to maintain its influence over the former Soviet republics, including Estonia and Lithuania. These two Baltic states though share a common history of Soviet occupation. There were two stages of Russian occupation of the two states. The first occupation was between 1939-1941 as a result of the Soviet-German non-aggression pact. The second Soviet occupation, considered illegal by the European democracies, began after the end of the Second World War and lasted for 48 years (1944-1991) until the break-up of the USSR.
Estonia and Lithuania have therefore developed differently in the post-Soviet period, which has also shaped their vulnerabilities to Russian propaganda. The ECR Party’s study provides a detailed picture of how Russian propaganda works its way into the information space of these two countries, identifying not only the channels and tactics used by the Kremlin, but also the factors that contribute to the susceptibility of the population to this form of influence.
To get a clear picture of the impact of Russian propaganda in Estonia and Lithuania, a quantitative survey was conducted between the 12th to the 29th of June 2024. This survey was administered to a representative sample of the adult population, aged 18-74, in both countries. No less than 1202 interviews were completed in Estonia and 1500 in Lithuania. The questionnaires were completed using the online method, thus providing access to a much wider segment of the population, but also limiting the study to people who have access to the internet.
Traditional media in Estonia: Print media outperforms the European average
One of the most remarkable aspects of media consumption in Estonia is the popularity of Estonian-language print media. Around 20% of Estonian adults read at least one print publication (daily newspapers in particular) every day, a figure that far exceeds the European average. This percentage of Estonians who consistently read newspapers suggests that print media remains an important pillar of Estonian public information, providing citizens with a source of information that is generally considered less susceptible to manipulation than other forms of media. In contrast, only 4% of Estonians read the Russian-language print media on a daily basis, reflecting a much lower usage of this media source among Estonian Russian speakers. In terms of TV and radio consumption, Estonian-language channels are clearly preferred over Russian-language channels. A highly significant factor influencing this is the ban imposed on Russian TV channels in Estonia, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This measure was taken by the Estonian government in order to limit the exposure of the population to Russian propaganda, which was intensified during that period.
Digital Media in Estonia: the main source of information for the population
The Internet has become the main source of information in Estonia. According to the ECR Party survey, more than half of the population access Estonian-language news portals daily. This trend is an indicator of the high level of digitization in Estonia, a country known for its IT and e-government initiatives. In addition, social networks play an extremely important role in news distribution. About 42% of Estonians use these social media platforms to keep informed about current events. However, the use of Russian-language portals and social networks is significantly lower, but not negligible, especially among Russian speakers in Estonia.
Sensitivity to Russian propaganda in Estonia
Although the ECR poll conducted in June revealed that the majority of Estonians would be willing to resist a possible Russian invasion, the reality is quite different. The actual willingness of Estonians to fight for their country is lower than one might expect. This can be attributed to both demographic factors and a certain skepticism about Estonia’s ability to effectively resist external aggression, given the country’s small size and proximity to Russia. Unfortunately, Russian propaganda has managed to penetrate certain segments of the Estonian population, especially among Russian speakers, by promoting messages that emphasize the moral decay of the European Union and question NATO’s intentions in its eastern flank. These messages are designed to sow distrust among citizens and undermine support for Western alliances, while portraying Russia as a defender of traditional values.
Traditional Media in Lithuania
Unlike its Estonian neighbors, traditional media consumption in Lithuania presents distinct peculiarities. Although Lithuanian-language print media and Lithuanian-language radio are less popular than in Estonia, this does not mean that traditional media play an insignificant role in informing the public. An extremely important factor is that consumption of Russian-language media in Lithuania is lower than in Estonia, largely reflecting greater ethnic homogeneity and a different historical experience with Russia. However, access to Russian media (Russian propagandist information in particular) is not completely absent, and there are segments of the population that inform themselves from Russian-language media sources. This is particularly the case in communities closer to the border with Belarus (an ally of the Russian Federation and supporter of the Kremlin’s actions in Ukraine) or among ethnic Russian minorities.
Digital Media in Lithuania: the main source of news for Lithuanian citizens
As in Estonia, digital media dominates the information landscape in Lithuania. Lithuanian-language news portals are recognized as the main source of information for the majority of the population, which is why social networks play a significant role in the distribution of news (either real news or propaganda news) here as well. According to the ECR survey, the proportion of those using Russian-language portals and social networks is significantly lower in Lithuania, reflecting greater cultural and linguistic resistance to external influences from Russia. This can also be attributed to proactive measures by the Lithuanian government to counter Russian propaganda, including media education and campaigns to raise public awareness of the danger of Russian propaganda on the territory of the country.
Sensitivity to Russian Propaganda in Lithuania
Lithuania, with a majority Lithuanian population and a different historical experience than Estonia, is generally less susceptible to Russian propaganda. Russian propaganda messages are perceived as less credible, and Lithuanian government and public support for NATO and the European Union remains strong. However, this does not mean that Lithuania is completely immune to foreign influences and Russian propaganda. There are still segments of the population that can be swayed, especially among those who are more socially isolated or less trusting of the government.
Factors Determining Susceptibility to Russian Propaganda
Detailed analysis of the ECR Party’s survey identified a number of factors influencing susceptibility to Russian propaganda in Estonia and Lithuania. These factors include: consumption of Russian-language media, demographics, political attitudes, and the historical experiences of the two countries in relation to the Russian Federation.
Russian-language media consumption: Extensive use of Russian-language television, radio and news portals is an important predictor of susceptibility to Russian propaganda. These media sources not only provide a constant flow of information aligned with the Kremlin’s position, but also succeed in shaping an alternative narrative to that presented by Western media. Demographics: Demographic factors such as age and gender play a more important role in determining susceptibility to propaganda in Estonia than in Lithuania. For example, young people in Estonia, who are more familiar with the internet and digital media, are less exposed and less susceptible to Russian propaganda than older people who consume more traditional media (print, radio and television). Political attitudes: In both countries, political attitudes significantly influence reaction to Russian propaganda. Confidence in the armed forces, perceptions of ethnic minorities and attitudes towards NATO are extremely important factors. Citizens who trust their government and international military alliances tend to be less susceptible to Russian propaganda, while those who are skeptical of these institutions are more easily swayed. Historical Experiences: The historical experiences of the two countries in relation to the Russian Federation have also shaped their exposure to propaganda coming from the Kremlin. Estonia, with a sizable Russian minority and a complex history of relations with Russia, exhibits greater vulnerability to Russian influence. On the other hand, Lithuania, with a more ethnically and culturally homogenous population, has developed greater resistance to narratives coming from Moscow.
As a conclusion to the analysis carried out by the ECR Party (a study partly funded by the European Parliament), the report highlights that although media consumption in Estonia and Lithuania plays an important role in determining susceptibility to Russian propaganda, it is not the only determining factor. Political attitudes, historical experiences and demographic background play key roles in how different segments of the population in Estonia and Lithuania respond to external influences. While Estonia, with a sizable Russian minority and a more complex media landscape, is proving more vulnerable to Russian propaganda, Lithuania, with a more homogenous ethnic structure and strong support for NATO, is generally more resistant to these influences. However, neither country is completely immune, and continued efforts by the authorities in both countries to counter Russian propaganda remain essential to maintain information security.