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Energy Challenges for Europe in the Trump Era

Trade and Economics - January 27, 2025

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has now become a reality, and his first 90 days in office have already introduced several significant policy shifts. Among the most notable are his administration’s energy policies.

These policy changes have been met with a mix of scepticism and caution by European leaders, prompting swift reactions from policymakers and industry stakeholders. A heated debate has emerged over the best approach to dealing with Trump’s commercial policies. While some advocate for a firm and confrontational stance, others prefer a more diplomatic approach, aiming to maintain constructive relations and shield European economies from potential economic fallout.

Energy policy is of particular concern, given its global implications. The United States, as one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, plays a pivotal role in achieving international climate targets. Consequently, the European Union must closely monitor developments in U.S. energy policy and adapt its strategies to uphold the climate commitments it has pursued over recent years.

Trump’s previous administration was characterised by efforts to roll back environmental regulations and ease restrictions on fossil fuel extraction. These initiatives are expected to resume, now with the added backing of a Republican-controlled Congress and a conservative-leaning Supreme Court.

Even before Trump’s return to office, Congress had already moved to relax air quality standards, while the Supreme Court restricted the regulatory authority of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). These developments signal a clear shift away from federal climate action in the U.S., placing additional pressure on the EU to assume greater responsibility in driving global decarbonisation efforts.

Moreover, the re-emergence of potential carbon border taxes and import tariffs present significant challenges to EU trade and energy cooperation. The EU must engage strategically, maintaining its leadership without compromising its economic interests.

While challenges may arise, the EU should be careful not to compromise its national security by pivoting toward a less adversarial approach with key competitors like India, and China. Increasing reliance on these actors could create long-term dependencies and expose the EU to geopolitical vulnerabilities. Furthermore, underestimating a resurgent United States determined to reassert its influence could prove detrimental to Europe’s strategic autonomy.

Despite these concerns, there are areas where EU-U.S. cooperation could align. The classification of nuclear energy as a green energy source under European regulations, for example, could serve as a bridge for collaboration. By showcasing the feasibility of combining economic competitiveness with environmental progress, the EU has an opportunity to position itself as a model of sustainable development that balances growth with climate action.

Rather than viewing Trump’s presidency solely as a challenge, the EU should seize this moment as an opportunity to reinforce its energy strategy. The goal should not be limited to responding to external pressures but to consolidating the EU’s position as a global leader in sustainable energy policy. The current geopolitical climate offers the EU a chance to push forward with ambitious initiatives that enhance its industrial competitiveness while securing long-term energy sustainability.

In light of Trump’s return to power, European unity will be more crucial than ever. Overcoming internal divisions and fostering cohesion among member states will be essential to advancing decarbonisation efforts, strengthening energy security, and positioning the continent as a resilient player in an increasingly fragmented global landscape.

By taking a proactive approach, the EU can turn current uncertainties into a catalyst for growth and innovation. Embracing renewable energy, enhancing energy efficiency, and investing in technological advancements will enable Europe to lead the transition to a low-carbon economy while maintaining its economic security and geopolitical influence.

Ultimately, Europe must remain steadfast in its commitment to climate goals while navigating the complexities of U.S. policies under Trump. This requires a delicate balance between standing firm on its environmental ambitions and fostering pragmatic cooperation where mutual interests align. If the EU can achieve this balance, it will not only strengthen its leadership on climate issues but also enhance its economic resilience in an era of shifting global dynamics.