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The German federal elections of February 23, 2025, marked a significant turning point in the country’s political landscape. The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), led by Friedrich Merz, secured a relative majority with 28.6% of the vote, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) made a surprising surge, becoming the second-largest party with 20.8%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), under Olaf Scholz, suffered a historic defeat, garnering only 18.5% of the vote. These results reflect a deeply divided nation, with fractures along geographic, generational, and socio-economic lines.
Friedrich Merz and CDU Policies
Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, is a prominent figure in German politics. Known for his conservative stance, he focused his campaign on immigration, security, and economic issues. He pledged to strengthen European independence from the United States and to implement stricter immigration policies, addressing the concerns of a significant portion of the electorate.
Under his leadership, the CDU advocates free-market economic policies, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to boost economic growth and reduce public debt. Additionally, the party promotes a foreign policy aimed at strengthening the European Union and consolidating transatlantic relations while maintaining a degree of strategic autonomy.
The Rise of AfD
AfD achieved its best electoral result, securing 20.8% of the vote and becoming the second-largest political force in the country. This success is attributed to growing voter discontent over immigration and the perceived loss of cultural identity. AfD capitalized on these concerns, proposing radical policies such as the mass deportation of immigrants and abandoning the euro in favor of the German mark.
Despite its electoral success, other major parties have ruled out forming coalitions with AfD, leaving it politically isolated. However, its strengthened presence in the Bundestag could influence political discourse, pushing migration and security policies towards more conservative positions.
The SPD’s Defeat
The SPD suffered one of the worst defeats in its history, receiving only 18.5% of the vote. This outcome reflects a loss of voter confidence, attributed to a perceived inability to address the country’s economic and social challenges. Olaf Scholz’s leadership has been called into question, and the party will need to undergo a period of reflection and renewal to regain voter support.
The SPD’s defeat also highlights the fragmentation of the left-wing vote, with some voters shifting towards more radical parties like Die Linke, which doubled its support compared to previous elections.
A Divided Germany
The election results have underscored deep divisions within Germany. Geographically, AfD gained strong support in the eastern Länder, highlighting a persistent disparity between East and West. Socially, the party attracted a significant number of young people and workers, indicating discontent among the country’s most vulnerable populations.
Conversely, urban and more prosperous areas continued to support traditional parties and the Greens, reflecting polarization based on economic and cultural factors. This division presents a significant challenge for the future government, which must work to unify the country and address the diverse needs of different regions and social groups.
Key Election Issues
The 2025 elections were dominated by two main issues: the economy and immigration. Economic stagnation, rising unemployment, and concerns about the future of the welfare system pushed many voters to seek alternatives to traditional policies.
Immigration, in particular, was at the center of political debate, with AfD exploiting fears related to integration and security to gain support. The CDU responded by promising stricter migration policies, while the SPD and Greens supported a more inclusive approach focused on integration and human rights. This polarization on key issues contributed to redefining political alliances and further fragmenting the electorate.
The Importance of Economy and Immigration
Economy and immigration became central topics in these elections due to a series of interconnected factors. Germany has faced slowed economic growth in recent years, with rising unemployment and increasing dissatisfaction with economic inequalities. This situation has fueled feelings of insecurity among the population, making voters more susceptible to populist rhetoric that promises quick and radical solutions.
Immigration was a crucial issue, both due to the refugee crisis and the perception that Scholz’s migration policies were ineffective. Germany has welcomed a significant number of migrants in recent years, but concerns have arisen about integrating them into the labor market and society. AfD capitalized on this discontent, linking immigration to issues such as rising crime and pressure on the welfare system.
On the other hand, Merz’s CDU adopted a stricter stance on immigration compared to Merkel’s years, proposing tougher measures such as border rejections and canceling family reunification for holders of subsidiary protection. These policies attracted voters dissatisfied with the more permissive approach of the SPD and Greens.
The economy played an equally crucial role. Traditionally Europe’s economic powerhouse, Germany has experienced stagnation due to the energy crisis, inflation, and industrial sector difficulties. Concerns about economic competitiveness pushed many voters toward the CDU, which promised tax cuts for businesses and greater incentives for investment.
What Happens Next?
The 2025 German elections mark a historic shift, with the CDU returning as the largest party, but within an extremely fragmented and polarized political landscape. The SPD’s collapse and AfD’s rise demonstrate a deeply divided country, not only between East and West but also between those who want continuity and those demanding radical change.
The main political challenge now is government formation. Despite winning the election, the CDU lacks an absolute majority and must seek coalition partners. This situation is complicated because, programmatically, Merz shares far more common ground with AfD than with potential government partners like the SPD and Greens.
On key issues such as immigration and the defense of German cultural identity, CDU and AfD have similar positions: both advocate for stricter migration policies, reinforced border controls, and tougher measures against illegal immigration. Even on economic policies, Merz has proposed tax cuts and greater economic freedom, principles not far from those promoted by AfD, which in recent years has attempted to present itself as an “anti-establishment” party with a more conservative economic agenda.
However, an alliance with AfD has been ruled out by Merz and the CDU leadership, both for international reputation reasons and due to internal opposition within the party. Germany has a strong taboo against far-right parties, and a CDU-AfD coalition would provoke enormous tensions at the European level and within the CDU itself, risking alienating the party’s moderate wing.
The alternatives, however, are all challenging. A Große Koalition with the SPD, previously experimented with, seems problematic since Scholz’s party suffered a heavy defeat, and many social democrats would see an alliance with Merz as political suicide. The Greens, while a potential ally, hold diametrically opposed positions to the CDU on many issues, including climate policies, energy, social policies, and the European Union’s vision. Moreover, both the Greens and SPD were part of the outgoing government, which voters rejected, making it difficult to re-propose an alliance with the CDU without losing further credibility.
Merz finds himself in a paradoxical situation: his party has won the election, but he risks being unable to govern. If he fails to form a stable coalition, Germany could soon face new elections, with the risk that further fragmentation could benefit AfD even more. This scenario would make German politics even more unstable, with repercussions not only at the national level but also across Europe, at a time when Germany is expected to lead the EU on crucial issues such as support for Ukraine, energy policies, and common defense.
Merz’s main challenge will be balancing the need to form a government with the risk of losing part of his electorate, who may feel betrayed if the CDU allies with parties too distant from its program. Whatever decision he makes, it will have profound consequences for Germany’s future and the country’s role in Europe in the coming years.