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German Bundestag elections always represent a turning point for the entire European continent. Should an alliance, explicit or implicit, between Friedrich Merz’s CDU and the AfD prevail in the upcoming consultations, the impact on German and EU migration policies would be significant and potentially revolutionary.
A clampdown on migration policies in Germany
Germany has experienced, from 2015 onwards, a migration policy characterised by significant openings, especially under the leadership of Angela Merkel. However, growing popular discontent with the effects of mass immigration – from rising crime to pressure on public services – has pushed the debate towards greater restriction.
Friedrich Merz has repeatedly criticised permissive migration policies, advocating a return to the principle of selectivity and strict regulation of entry. The CDU, under his leadership, has already adopted harsher rhetoric, placing the concept of ‘conditional integration’ and a more effective return policy for irregular migrants at the centre of its proposal.
On the other hand, the AfD is pushing for even more radical measures: border closures, withdrawal from European agreements on the redistribution of migrants, and even the possibility of a referendum to opt out of certain common EU migration policies. Should the AfD enter a coalition government or have significant parliamentary influence, Germany could adopt a line much closer to that of countries like Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.
Merz’s five points on migration policies
Recently, Friedrich Merz presented a five-point programme for migration management in Germany and more generally at the European level. Here is a summary:
1. Selection of immigration on the basis of skills: Merz proposes a model inspired in part by the Canadian points system, in which the entry of new migrants is made dependent on educational and professional requirements, giving priority to highly qualified profiles.
2. Strengthened border controls: According to Merz, Germany should intensify its border controls, also in cooperation with other EU states, in order to reduce irregular entry. To this end, more cooperation with Frontex and an increase of dedicated staff would be necessary.
3. Faster asylum procedures: Merz advocates speeding up the process of assessing asylum applications, reducing bureaucracy and avoiding long periods of uncertainty for migrants and authorities. The point is to quickly distinguish who is entitled to protection and who is not.
4. More effective repatriation: One of the cornerstones of the programme is the adoption of stricter legal instruments to quickly deport those who have no right to remain in Germany, especially if they are involved in criminal activities. This entails more binding bilateral agreements with the countries of origin and enhanced diplomatic cooperation.
5. Integration on a contractual basis: the concept of ‘conditional integration’ proposed by Merz envisages a pact between the state and the migrant, in which linguistic, work and behavioural obligations are defined, on pain of revocation of permits. The idea is to combine rights and duties, promoting more conscious inclusion in German society.
Effects at European level and the possible axis with the Meloni government
Germany has historically been the main driver of European migration policies, often acting as the pivot for the reception and redistribution of migrants among the various member states. A change of course in Berlin would therefore have immediate repercussions on EU dynamics.
A German government with a strong conservative bias could:
– Push for the revision of the Migration and Asylum Pact approved in 2023, making migrant redistribution mechanisms more complex and paving the way for more possibilities for rejections and returns.
– Support the militarisation of the EU’s external borders, encouraging the strengthening of the Frontex agency and increasing agreements with third countries to stop migratory flows before they arrive in Europe.
– Redefining the role of Italy and the other Mediterranean countries, which could find themselves with a greater weight in the management of migratory flows if Germany were to reduce its relocation quota.
In this context, an axis could emerge with Giorgia Meloni’s government in Italy, which has always maintained a hard line on immigration, especially with regard to the defence of maritime borders. An alliance between Rome and Berlin on more restrictive policies could change the balance of power within the European Council, with possible knock-on effects also on budget policies related to migrant management and future relocation agreements.
A CDU-AfD government would not pass without resistance. On the one hand, progressive sectors of German politics and part of civil society would oppose such a sharp reversal from the Merkel era, with possible demonstrations and protests. On the other hand, the European Commission and some member states, such as France and Spain, might try to curb German influence on this dossier by trying to maintain a more inclusive approach.
However, a more restrictive Germany could favour the emergence of a common front with Central and Eastern European countries, such as Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, consolidating a Eurosceptic bloc on migration issues. This could increase internal EU tensions and further test the resilience of the Union.
Should Merz’s CDU and AfD prevail in the upcoming Bundestag elections, Germany could undergo a sharp turnaround in its migration policies, decisively influencing the course of the EU. Merz’s five-point programme and the possible convergence with right-wing governments in other countries, such as the Italian government of Giorgia Meloni, could reshape the management of migratory flows on a more restrictive basis, focusing on strict border controls, lower relocation quotas and faster repatriation procedures.
In such a scenario, the EU would be faced with new internal tensions, with a clear contrast between the member states more inclined to welcome and those more inclined to close. The real unknown will be whether this shift will succeed in improving the efficiency of the migration system and reassure national electorates, or whether on the contrary it will further exacerbate the already existing divisions within the continent.