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Over the past decade, the geopolitical landscape has undergone profound changes, driven by the race for new energy and mineral resources and the need for strategic trade routes. Greenland has become a global “hot spot” thanks to its Arctic location and wealth of resources – rare earths, hydrocarbons, critical minerals and hydropower potential. The interest shown by former US President Donald Trump, who has speculated about “buying” the island, has drawn attention to the dynamics between Greenland, Denmark and international investors, reopening the debate on autonomy from Copenhagen. Faced with this scenario, the European Union (EU) must choose between remaining a spectator or actively intervening with long-term investments to maintain its presence in an increasingly crucial region.
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The Geostrategic Importance of Greenland
Greenland, an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, is the largest island in the world but has only 56,000 inhabitants. Its extreme climate and limited infrastructure have slowed its development, but melting ice and the search for critical resources are now increasing its strategic value. The island lies along potential Arctic routes that may become more accessible as global warming continues. In addition, the U.S. military’s Thule Air Base testifies to Washington’s interest in this key hub, which is essential for control of the Northern Hemisphere and deterrence against Russia and China.
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The Arctic Context and Global Competition
To understand the importance of Greenland, it is necessary to place it in the broader Arctic picture, where rising temperatures and receding ice are turning the entire region into a new battleground between powers.
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- New shipping lanes
- The ‘North Sea Route’ and the ‘Transpolar Route’ could drastically cut travel times between Europe and Asia, with significant implications for global trade.
. - Natural Resources
- The Arctic offers untapped hydrocarbon deposits and mineral resources essential to the technology industry. In particular, Greenland has rare earths, graphite, nickel, gold, and even uranium.
. - Military Positioning
- Russia’s interest in the Arctic, evidenced by the modernization of its fleet, and the U.S. presence in the region suggest a possible strategic confrontation, while China, although not an Arctic state, has described itself as an “Arctic neighbor” and has undertaken research and investment projects in several northern countries.
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Greenland, still formally linked to Denmark (a member of the EU), is part of a complex geopolitical dynamic involving Washington and Beijing, which are interested in its location and resources.
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Critical Resources and the Role of Rare Earths
At the heart of the debate in Greenland are rare earths, 17 key elements in the production of high-tech devices ranging from smartphones and wind turbines to components for the military industry. China now dominates the global market for rare earths, handling much of the production and refining. The European Union, which is seeking to reduce its dependence on external supplies of key raw materials, would have a potential source in Greenland to diversify its supply. However, given the fragility of the Arctic ecosystem, an investment and partnership strategy is needed that includes infrastructure, financial support, and a strict focus on the environment.
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U.S. interests and Trump’s policy
Trump’s idea to “buy” Greenland was not a mere provocation, but a sign of a long-term US vision. The island is an important military and logistical outpost for Washington. Thanks to Thule Air Base, the US controls the North Atlantic and monitors potential movements of other powers in the Arctic. Moreover, countering Chinese penetration of Greenland meets the need to keep the island under Western influence. Although relations with Denmark have been strained, it remains clear that any European disengagement could further favor U.S. action.
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China’s position and implications for the EU
Although China has no Arctic borders, it has developed a strategy called the “Polar Silk Road”, linked to investments and infrastructure projects in the region. In Greenland, Beijing has already shown interest in natural resources (rare earths and uranium), providing capital and technical assistance. For the EU, such an expanded Chinese presence would risk losing strategic opportunities, not only commercially but also geopolitically. If Greenland becomes an important part of China’s economic expansion, the Arctic balance could tilt towards a power with which Europe already has a complex interdependent relationship.
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Possible avenues for greater European engagement
For the EU to play a major role in Greenland, a multi-level intervention must be structured:
- Direct and infrastructure investment
- The European Investment Bank (EIB) can facilitate the development of long-term projects and reduce the risks for European companies interested in setting up in Greenland. So far, the EIB has taken a cautious approach, partly because of internal rules and partly because of the uncertainty of returns. But competing with China and the United States requires greater flexibility and a time horizon that values strategic benefits over purely financial ones.
- Scientific and technological cooperation
- Greenland’s hydroelectric potential, fueled by melting ice, could create opportunities in the field of renewable energy. The promotion of academic cooperation and research projects could consolidate the European presence in the area, encouraging the exchange of expertise and the development of innovative solutions.
. - Political and institutional dialogue
- The EU should intensify relations with the Greenlandic government and the Danish authorities, promoting stable bilateral agreements on resource exploitation, environmental protection and the involvement of local communities. A strong and common regulatory framework would attract companies to invest while providing guarantees for the Greenlandic population.
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For its part, Greenland wants partnerships that will help it develop its industrial and mining potential without losing control of its territory to foreign multinationals. The EU could become a privileged partner if it provided a sustainable investment plan and supported the training of local skills.
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The Independence Debate and the Risks of a European ‘Overdraft
The prospect of an independent Greenland is a recurring one. The island currently receives subsidies from Copenhagen and, if independent, would have to make up for this lack of resources, probably by opening up further to international investors. If the EU fails to offer a competitive and sustainable support package, Greenland could turn even more to the US and China, with sensitive consequences for European security and access to resources. Indeed, the future of Greenland is not a purely local issue, but touches on the entire geopolitical architecture of the North Atlantic and the availability of key resources for the energy transition.
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Future Prospects and the Need for a Strategic Vision
One of the key issues is the environmental impact of mining. Greenland has extremely fragile ecosystems and mining activities carried out without proper precautions can cause irreversible damage. The EU, with its high environmental standards, could act as a reliable partner, offering technological support and strict regulations to reduce negative impacts. This would also help to boost the confidence of local communities, who are often concerned about the arrival of foreign capital. In line with the European Green Deal, investments in clean technologies and workforce training would allow for more balanced and environmentally friendly economic growth in the Arctic.
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In the medium to long term, the Arctic – and by extension Greenland – will be at the center of international interest, in particular due to the competition between the US and China in the fields of technology and security. The EU therefore faces a crucial choice: continue with a cautious approach or develop an organic strategy based on clear investments, political cooperation and respect for local specificities. A ‘European Arctic Plan’ could include:
- R&D funds related to renewable energy and pilot projects in Greenland;
. - Specific incentives for European companies wishing to operate in the mining or infrastructure sectors in Greenland;
. - A permanent consultation table with Greenlandic and Danish authorities and local stakeholders to align the territory’s development goals with European perspectives;
. - Adjustments in the EIB’s policies, so that projects with high strategic potential are not penalized by short-term performance logics;
. - strengthening the diplomatic presence in Nuuk to better coordinate economic activities and political relations.
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Today, Greenland has evolved from an Arctic periphery to a hub of global interests. Its vast territory, mineral resources, strategic location and US military presence make it a key indicator of geopolitical dynamics. It is vital for the EU to act quickly and decisively: adequate financial support, balanced cooperation and a sustainable approach could give Europe a leading role. This would reduce external dependence on strategic resources and project an image of reliability on the global stage.
Trump’s reflection on Greenland has made it clear that the Arctic game is not a regional issue between the US and Denmark, but one that involves the global balance of power and the future of Europe’s energy transition. If Brussels wants to promote its values and interests, it needs to do more than just observe: it needs a long-term investment plan and infrastructure projects, along with an ongoing dialog with local communities.
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Greenland embodies many of the challenges of the 21st century: the race for critical resources, great power rivalry, climate change, and the need for energy innovation. Failure to seize the opportunity to be a key partner in the island’s development would mean missing an important geopolitical train. It is therefore desirable for the EU to make a responsible and ambitious choice so that Greenland becomes a virtuous example of strategic and sustainable cooperation.