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A new study from Lund University in Sweden shows that men with an immigrant background are clearly overrepresented in Swedish rape convictions.
The study, “Immigrant Background and Rape Conviction: A 21-Year Follow-Up Study in Sweden”, was recently published in “Journal of interpersonal violence”. The authors, Ardavan Khoshnood, Jan Sundqvist and Kristina Sundqvist, are all doctoral researchers in medicine. The subject is sensitive and controversial since it concerns immigration and the highly disputed link between immigration and crime.
The study includes 4032 individuals convicted of rape, attempted rape, aggravated rape and attempted aggravated rape between 2000 and 2020. The origin but also the living circumstances and mental health conditions of these persons have been compared with 20,160 individuals chosen at random and functioning as a comparative control group.
The purpose of the study is twofold. Firstly, the authors want to investigate whether there is any excess risk of being convicted of rape for people with different degrees of foreign background. Secondly, the authors wish to see if such a possible excess risk in that case could be explained by traditionally recognized predictors of rape such as social vulnerability, substance abuse or mental illness.
According to the researchers themselves, the result is clear. There is indeed a strong over-representation among immigrants, and it is so robust that it cannot be explained by any usual rape predictors.
Among those convicted of rape, the individuals who were born in Sweden with two Swedish-born parents made up only 36.9 percent of the group. In the control group, on the contrary, this category made up 69.5 percent of the individuals. If we turn the numbers around, it means that of the people who had been convicted of rape, 63.1 percent were not born in Sweden with two Swedish-born parents, while this category of individuals made up only 30.5 percent of the individuals in the control group. In addition, it appears that the overrepresentation is highest among men who themselves were born abroad, who have migrated at 15 years of age or older and who have lived for a limited time in Sweden: “This association [between migrant background and rape conviction] was notably pronounced among individuals born outside Sweden and residing within the country for a time span less than 5 years and/or those who arrived at 15 years of age and older, suggesting a possible role of acculturation in deciphering these findings”
In their discussion, the authors try to place their study in a larger societal perspective. They note, among other things, that it should not be forgotten that most immigrants never commit any rape despite the overrepresentation that still exists. This is worth reminding.
Despite this, it has already been established in previous Swedish studies that people with an immigrant background have a general over-representation in crime. This was revealed in a large study by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention presented in 2021. From that perspective, the results from this new study are expected and not surprising at all.
However, there seems to be an obvious shortcoming in the study that the researchers in Lund are now presenting. They do not differentiate between different origins. All immigrants fall into the same category. This becomes problematic because the study by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention clearly showed that it is immigrants with certain origins who are responsible for the overrepresentation in crime.
In any case, this new study constitutes another important contribution to the knowledge we all need so much concerning the possible links between migration and crime in the European Union. Knowledge can never be a problem, and it is important we have knowledge when we discuss sensible subjects.