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These are crucial hours for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has been ongoing for more than three years now. Donald Trump’s mediation has yet to produce tangible results, and the same can be said about Europe, that continues to support Zelensky and his people and is even thinking about possible direct involvement. ReArm Europe has been renamed Readiness 2030, but the substance does not change: it is a race for armed defence, and the 800 billion proposed by von der Leyen are still foreseen. The EU, among other things, has also “sensitized” citizens to the possibility of having an emergency kit, hinting at the possibility of imminent danger. There are still no signs of détente between the parties, in fact Russia is wavering on Trump’s proposals and addressing the EU plans by labelling them false. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, during the last few hours pointed out how, from the Kremlin’s point of view, the willingness to deploy “Western peacekeeping forces in Ukraine – especially on the part of London and Paris – is actually the transformation of a military intervention.” So, the climate is far from relaxed.
The meeting in Riyadh
Last Tuesday, March 25th, the U.S. and Ukraine met in Riyadh to engage in ceasefire talks. Trump’s goal is to reach agreements beneficial to the U.S. economy, but also to make sure that steps are taken toward crystallizing the war. It goes without saying that we are talking about a temporary ceasefire, and not a long-term intervention as the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is calling for. During the talks, some groundwork was laid, such as the possibility of obtaining safe navigation in the Black Sea. In practice, in the note circulated by the U.S., the elimination of the use of force and an end to the use of commercial vessels for military purposes would seem to be a condition. Kiev confirms, but also asserts that the slightest violation, or sailing of Russian military vessels out of the western part of the Black Sea, would represent without a doubt a threat to the Ukrainian people, who would then feel fully entitled to defend themselves, as explained by Ukrainian Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov. In short, it’s like a walk on a tightrope. On the other hand, Russia would demand, in agreement with the U.S., reintroduction to world markets and thus obtain “that the restrictions of sanctions be lifted on Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions, which provide operations for international trade in food and fertilizer, and that their expected connection to the Swift system will also be made,” as stated by Maria Zakharova. The issue related to energy sources also remains open: in the released notes, so both the one regarding Ukraine’s demands and the one regarding Russia, there would also be a commitment not to hit the energy facilities of both countries. Finally, the point on the release of hostages: Zelensky and his people have called for the exchange of prisoners of war, especially the children who, against their will, were transferred to Russia. Trump persists in wanting to “end the killing, to achieve a lasting peace,” but despite talks and words spent, Russian attacks in recent days have not ceased. Therefore, a lot of time will have to pass before we get to talk about real negotiations and a time-bound peace. Not least because, in regard to the talks that are to be held between Moscow and the U.S. instead, it has already been pointed out by the Kremlin spokesman that they will happen behind closed doors and that it will not be possible to have access to the day’s contents. In any case, even considering all that has happened during the past weeks, the possibility of seeing Putin and Zelensky sitting at the same table has never even been ventured.
The European side: the March 27th meeting and Macron’s statements
Meanwhile, Europe is also moving its own steps, but not always in a cohesive manner. There are disagreements among the various EU member states on what to do, especially on sending troops to Ukraine. France has taken the lead by hosting the March 27th summit, but also by being, along with England, an advocate for possible peacekeeping deployment and full support for Ukraine. The goal, Macron has always made clear, is to achieve lasting peace. So, the 30-day truce hypothesized by the U.S. would obviously be a good thing, but there is a need, according to the French leader, to lay the groundwork for re-establishing a robust international balance through a permanent truce. A difficult outcome, considering that Russia in no way approves of sending EU soldiers to Ukraine, nor is the EU inclined to end sanctions; quite the contrary. The very last summit in Paris resulted in the unanimous “no” from EU and NATO countries to ending the sanctions imposed on Moscow, as well as in the development of a strategy that would allow Europe to defend itself without America, should the relationship of trust between the parties break down. Although Marcon, at the press conference, called the U.S. a reliable ally. The French president added that an Anglo-French delegation may soon be sent to Ukraine to support the troops. Furthermore, France and Britain are planning a reassurance force aimed at helping Ukraine that will “operate in the air, land and sea.” On this point, though, there is no unanimity yet. Italy, along with Germany, is among the countries that from the very first moment has put a lot of brakes on sending troops to Ukraine, even if only for peacekeeping missions. During the past few weeks both PM Meloni and Foreign Minister Tajani have reiterated on several occasions that Italy will stand firmly by the side of the people led by Zelensky, but that it will not send troops, nor does it believe it is appropriate to talk about the topic at the present time. In a note released by Palazzo Chigi just in the last few hours, we learn that the Italian Prime Minister, during the Paris summit, confirmed the commitment on the part of all European and Western partners to want to achieve a just and lasting peace, and also made it clear that “solid and credible security guarantees” that find “grounding in the Euro-Atlantic context, also on the basis of a model that in part can trace what is provided for in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty,” must be discussed. Once again, the PM insisted by stating that Italy will under no circumstances send troops to Ukrainian territory and called for any possible ceasefire to look especially at schools and hospitals: in short, civilian infrastructure. At the moment, however, the U.S. response to the defense process put in place by Europe is still unclear. The tariff war, certainly, does not give hope for a resolution that would see the EU and the U.S. moving one alongside the other, but as Macron pointed out during his speech, there is still hope that, given the geopolitical context, Trump will renounce what he has declared on tariffs in recent months. If not, France said it is ready to work closely with “the European Commission to support all the economic sectors that will be affected and to provide solutions. In any case, I do not believe that this decision will increase the growth and prosperity of our societies. Therefore, I hope that after some announcements, President Trump will review this decision.”