Should Europe Fear Possible Future Terrorist Attacks?

Europe is on alert after the wave of terror that swept through it immediately after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. Attacks resulting in casualties, dozens of hoax bomb threats that shut down airports, government institutions and tourist attractions, attacks on synagogues – have sown terror not only in Western Europe, the scene on which Islamist radicals from various terrorist groups have evolved, but across the Old Continent. In this context, it is legitimate to wonder: Should Europe fear possible future terrorist attacks?

Despite the fact that alert levels have been raised and borders closed – for fear of new terrorists entering the continent – the end of this new wave of terror still seems a long way off. For some countries, such as France, Belgium and Germany, the threat of Islamist terrorist attacks did not end after 2015, it just entered a new phase. What is known for sure so far is that the bombers – just like those who sowed panic from 2015 onwards – managed to act unhindered despite being on the “blacklists” of special services or known to be involved in various criminal activities by the authorities of the European countries where they lived, legally or illegally. Unsurprisingly, recent attacks have taken place in countries with the largest Islamic communities.

The rekindling of the Middle East conflict with the recent attacks in the Gaza Strip is thus rekindling the terrorist movements of radical Islamists in Europe with a flame that seemed to have subsided. Terrorist attacks come on top of pro-Palestinian protests, which took place in the early days after the outbreak of war in Israel and have been banned in some countries, and increasingly violent clashes between Muslim immigrant communities and the police, such as in Germany, France and even Ireland. All these conflicts have one aim, and that is to spread terror among the populations of EU countries.

The brutal terrorist attacks committed since 2015 in European metropolises such as Brussels, Paris and Berlin “in the name of Islam” have a wide range of perpetrators and in many cases are based on the profile of frustrated young people with no prospects, receptive to the radical ideology propagated by terrorist organisations such as the Islamic State, which has claimed responsibility for most of the attacks in Europe. They come as refugees or illegal migrants or asylum seekers, or, with North African origins, are citizens of European countries. Not infrequently they are involved in illegal activities such as drug trafficking or robbery. What they all have in common is that they have managed to evade the authorities long enough to be able to act once, brutally and lightning-fast, enough to spread terror.

According to French media reports, the perpetrator of the 13 October Arras murder of French language teacher Dominique Bernard is Mohammed Mogushkov, a 20-year-old Islamist who has been granted refugee status. Although initially said to be Chechen, Mogushkov was born in Ingushetia and arrived with his family in France when he was 6 years old. His name was on a blacklist of French intelligence services, which had targeted him, including his brother and father. Although attempts were made to deport the whole family, when refugee organisations intervened, the process was stopped. French law was on Mohammed’s side because it does not allow the deportation of those who arrived in the country before the age of 13. He even applied for French citizenship in 2019, but his application was rejected on undisclosed grounds.

“There was no intelligence gap. Nothing in the elements we had at our disposal allowed us to predict that this individual would go on to act,” is the official explanation of French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, who noted that the young man could not be deported because of the protection enjoyed by those who came to France before the age of 13.

In 2020, another 18-year-old Russian of Chechen origin beheaded a teacher who had shown caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed at a debate. Abdulah A. had entered France legally and had a residence permit issued the same year, valid until 2030, under refugee status. He would not have been on any blacklist of potential radicalised Islamists, but would have had a criminal record for ordinary offences.

France was condemned at the ECHR last year in a case concerning the expulsions of Islamists from the Caucasus. However, the French interior minister has announced that the process of deporting those whose residence permits have been withdrawn to Russia will continue, as it is more important to protect French citizens than the European court’s decision. At the same time, in response to opposition criticism that the French government was not taking effective action in the context of the current wave of attacks, Darmanin promised that the files of all those labelled “S”, i.e. those who pose a danger to national security, would be carefully reviewed.

The man suspected of carrying out the 2018 Strasbourg Christmas Fair bombing that left three people dead and 12 injured, Cherif Chekatt, was also an “S” file. by French authorities. The 29-year-old of North African descent, later referred to as a “gangster-jihadist”, was born in Strassbourg, France, and was a French citizen. He had numerous convictions for crimes committed in France, Germany and Switzerland. He was considered a threat to public order in Germany and was banned from entering Germany by the Berlin authorities. After being imprisoned in Freiburg for robbery, he was handed over to the French authorities. After he was caught and executed by French special forces, his attack was claimed by the Islamic State. The terrorist organisation claimed Chekatt was its “soldier” and carried out the attack at its call.

Another Moroccan-born French national, Redouane Lakdim, in the town of Carcassonne, believed to be the perpetrator of the 2018 hostage-taking in Trebes, was known to police for petty crime and had been on the list of individuals considered a danger to France’s national security since 2014. He, too, has been claimed as an Islamic State soldier.

In 2023 , Abdessalem Lassoued, a Tunisian in the country illegally, managed to create panic on the streets of Brussels, killing two supporters of the Swedish football team, who had arrived in the Belgian capital for a 2024 European Football Championship qualifier. The 45-year-old man, who shouted “Allahu akbar” as he fired the shot, shared the attack on social media. He claimed he was acting on behalf of the Islamic State. The man had a criminal record and had been refused asylum several years ago. He was shot dead during a Belgian police operation.

The 2016 Berlin Christmas Fair bombing, which killed 12 people and wounded 48 others, was also attributed, at least immediately after the event, to the Islamic State. Subsequently, after several suspects were detained and released for lack of evidence, German investigators launched a new working theory. According to it, the perpetrator of the attack was the Tunisian Anis Amri, who allegedly killed in the name of the terrorist organisation ISIS. He was not considered a potential suspect because mentions of his suspicious activities did not appear until a year later in official reports. And these mentions referred to drug trafficking. Amri was killed in 2017 in Italy after he resisted Carabinieri and was stopped for a routine check. 

These examples listed above only go to show how vulnerable the Old Continent is to terrorist threats from citizens whom the European Union states have accepted, offered a home to and, moreover, paid welfare benefits to.