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The recent European elections kicked off the complex diplomatic work of expressing the leadership of the new European Institutions. In fact, the positioning of the Member States has led in recent weeks to the confirmation of Roberta Mestola as President of the European Parliament, the election of Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the Commission and Antonio Costa as President of the European Council, and the appointment of Kaja Kallas to the post of High Representative for Foreign Policy. In this way, the first phase of the restart of the European institutions was completed, but the work – and above all the challenges – are certainly not over.
THE NEXT INSTITUTIONAL STEPS
Just like a state, the European Union also has its bureaucratic processes and customs, which in this case need time to come to fruition. In fact, the work on the composition of the institutions has not yet been completed. By August, the governments of the Member States will have the task of appointing the members of the Commission. In fact, the President will have to entrust them with specific delegations and a portfolio to carry out the specific actions required. Once this step has been completed, the floor passes to the individual Commissions of the European Parliament, which will have the task of listening to and, above all, approving the Commissioners. This is a rather delicate and anything but formal moment. In the past, frictions (both personal and political) have led to a slowdown in the work, which, in any case, will hopefully be concluded no later than the plenary meeting in October 2024. On that occasion, in fact, President Von der Leyen will speak directly to the Parliament and present her work programme, which will have to be ratified by a vote of confidence. Only after this new vote will the Commission be truly installed and accepted.
MANY CRISES TO DEAL WITH
The clash of the last few weeks over the naming and voting of the Presidencies will most likely reappear in the steps just described. This is because never before has the new European legislature opened in a very challenging context. The crisis does not only unfold from an economic point of view, and it is also not confined within the borders of the European Union. International instabilities, as well as long-term phenomena, generate security problems on Europe’s doorstep, while the economy has to reckon with the demands of the global market and green policies.
INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGES
The institutional steps to start the legislature see in the background the unravelling of the major crises with which we are forced to deal on the international scene. The war in Ukraine, for which a pareal and viable roadmap towards a peace process does not yet seem to have emerged, is certainly at the centre of the thoughts and work of the European institutions. The war on Europe’s doorstep is obviously a non-negligible element of what Von der Leyen’s programme should be, and the vote of confidence scheduled for October will also have to be carefully assessed on this. But Europe’s security is not only threatened by the clash between Russia and Ukraine; in fact, the instability of the entire Middle East region, starting with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is a matter of continuous analysis. Especially these days where the widening of the conflict to the rest of the region seems imminent and almost inevitable. In all these contexts, the position taken in the construction of the new European institutions by governments such as the Italian one, has substantial value. The action of exerting pressure on the institutions, especially if carried out by strong governments on the national front, has a weight that cannot be forgotten and that must be brought to bear especially on issues of vital importance for the security of the European Union’s borders. Let’s consider the already open game on the American presidential elections and how the outcome could have consequences on relations across the Atlantic. Without forgetting how the competition between the US and China is developing at a global level and thus also strongly affecting the European market and economy. The new institutions are therefore preparing to appear within a multilateral system that is going through perhaps its worst crisis. The support of strong governments among the Member States is certainly a condition to be sought, especially with a view to long-term stability.
COMMON DEFENCE AND IMMIGRATION
Support for the institutions, especially from the members that make up the Union’s border, is essential today. In fact, in this legislature, the integration process on the common European defence front cannot fail to be re-examined, just as immigration issues (especially from African countries) will be at the heart of the debate. The current global scenario cannot but require Europe to assume responsibilities that were unthinkable before. The very security of the Union is threatened by a conflict on its doorstep. The indirect involvement in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine presents challenges that only strong European institutions (specifically strong in the consensus of the Member States) can tackle. Europe must develop its capacity to be a central and leading element within the Atlantic Alliance, especially in view of the developments at the last NATO summit for the 70th anniversary of the Alliance. Defence spending must be carried out more intelligently and with a view to interoperability, especially in the service of common missions and with Europe at the heart of the internal defence market. Technological growth in this respect must be an important asset of the European economy, becoming a pillar on which to base a renewed focus on common defence. The southern front is also affected by the growth of immigration, which cannot be underestimated by the new European institutions, especially in the relationship with the Member States most involved in the phenomenon. The challenge will be to fight illegal immigration also through the weight of the European Union in concertation with the countries of origin and transit of migratory flows. Initiatives that should not disregard the Union’s involvement, but are increasingly left to individual countries, which are left alone to deal with the imbalances generated by these phenomena.
GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENT
The importance of the support of strong governments among the Member States is certainly also linked to an economic situation that sees a rather weak growth, in addition to the slowdown in global trade figures due to international instability and the contingency of all the crises outlined so far. In this scenario, the leading role of the European Union remains vital, especially since this role has certainly not been achieved in recent years. Undoubtedly Von der Leyen, in the presentation of her programme (scheduled, as previously written, for the October 2024 plenary meeting), will focus on relaunching the European Union’s competitiveness, also with a view to decreasing dependence on energy and strategic resources. The confrontation about these topics certainly cannot disregard the position of countries like Italy, nations that are naturally candidates for a key role in energy distribution. Then there is the issue of the Green Deal, on which the right expectations of Member States on the economic front will have to be reconciled. If in fact energy transition and decarbonisation remain a priority for the European Union, these certainly cannot bring specific industrial sectors to their knees or weigh on economies, especially if they risk worsening the performance of national markets and thus the stability of governments. Indeed, the costs of these green strategies cannot weigh on national governments or individual sectors. This would lead to an escalation of conflict and, above all, would not fulfil the expectations of a renewed competitiveness of the European Union in the global economic market.