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Everything is being played out this week and at the Elysée Palace the game has never been clearer. The crisis in the French government, which is occupying the foreign news pages also in our country, has its roots in Macron’s decision on 9 June, after the European elections, to put his mandate back in the hands of the voters. A decision that, albeit partially, rewarded Le Pen’s Rassemblement National with a result that, in the last elections for the renewal of the National Assembly held on June 30 and July 7, saw an interesting growth of the French right. Now the weight of both Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen is added to Macron, always on opposite sides but in this case with the common objective of forcing the head of state to resign, bringing forward the presidential elections to well before 2027.
THE CLASH ON WELFARE
It is, therefore, in these days that the clash will take place, and we’ll know whether the government that has been in office for less than three months will manage to complete the manoeuvre on welfare – the deadline is on December 31st – without running into the ‘storm’ evoked in recent days by Prime Minister Barnier. One of the elements of this storm (that perhaps, to date, is still only a minor turbulence) is certainly the weight of the markets and the spread, which has already reached a very high level. Then there is the motion of no-confidence tabled by the New Popular Front of the Gauche, while Le Pen has already announced that she will not just vote on the document already presented, but the Rassemblement National will produce its own to present to the House. The attempt is to not allow the government to pass the expiring measures, described by Le Pen as ‘unfair to the French people’. Among the elements most criticised would be the cuts planned on the middle class and the cut, judged too insignificant, to free medicines for illegal immigrants and sans papier: a measure that would cost EUR 1.6 billion a year from which Macron would only cut EUR 200 million. There are still some technical possibilities to ‘save what can be saved’ and secure the manoeuvre. In particular, Barnier could resort to Article 49 of the Constitution, that allows the law to be passed without debate, while at the same time amending the text to make it more digestible for the government allies and overcome the stalemate.
THE ECONOMIC FACTOR
There is very little time to come to an equilibrium, time that is dictated above all by the results of French government bonds – currently equal to those of Greece – as well as the value of the Spread, which right now is at the same values of the 2012 crisis. Of course, the financial markets will not be slow to weigh in on the crisis either, as instability could quickly make international capital migrate to other shores. Finally, the domestic economic front, with the financial manoeuvre to be voted by 31 December. In the absence of a new law, the only viable solution would be an extension of the 2024 text, pending the summer and the possibility of returning to the will of the ballot box.
THE POSSIBLE CRISIS
The executive appointed on 5 September could become the shortest one in the history of the Fifth Republic, and the first to be formally challenged since 1962. On that date, in fact, Premier Georges Pompidou was first challenged and then put back on track by General De Gaulle. At the moment, French analysts speak of 320 deputies against, when 289 would be sufficient for a no-confidence vote. But in any case, what could be the medium-term future of the majority that was reshuffled last summer? The risk of a reshuffle for mathematical support is just around the corner, and continuing the legislature with a looming crisis – like a sword of Damocles -, as well as no-confidence vote, is not easy. Especially with the current international scenario and a leading role to try to maintain. It would seem that more than half of the French people are currently hoping for a fall, certainly the 11 million voters of Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. One no-confidence vote after another could bring the French government to a paralysis. Another element to take into account in this case, however, would be the weight of the constitutional dictate, which would prevent a new electoral round before the summer, with Macron forced to dissolve the Assemblée only from June.