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The fluidity of the situation in Syria is certainly a puzzle for analysts around the world. Indeed, tensions, power relations and critical issues in the region will, of necessity, have to be reorganised in order to find a new balance. Also, let us remember, in view of the other international crises that involve the players in question, albeit not directly but through their closest allies. So, the war in Ukraine and the clashes in Gaza and in Lebanon with Israel cannot fail to be influenced by this new set-up. There are several fronts and topics to be addressed in order to make an accurate analysis of the situation. Here we will try to line up just a few of these aspects, those that are perhaps among the most pressing on the international and European scene, so as to lay the foundations for analysing an everchanging situation. In particular, we will focus on the operation launched by Israel on the Golan Heights and on the issue of migratory flows and asylum requests, on which the European chancelleries are reorganising themselves with a brake on the procedures of applications analysis.
ISRAEL AND THE GOLAN
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime immediately brought attention back to the Golan Heights, with Israel immediately occupying the areas of the security strip along the border with Syria. Netanyahu immediately hastened to speak of a limited and temporary action, but condemnations of what is also understood by the UN as a blatant violation of the agreements in force since 1974 were also quick to follow. In fact, a UN contingent has been patrolling this area for precisely fifty years. It is the Undof mission (which currently has about 1,000 men deployed there) with the task of supervising the implementation of the agreements by maintaining the ceasefire between the two countries. For Israel, this operation, although described as ‘limited’, nevertheless constitutes a new front in addition to the one with Lebanon (on which a ceasefire is in force), the war in Gaza, and the continuing tension in Yemen and the Red Sea.
Probably at the moment the Israeli Prime Minister considers the 1974 agreements as null and void: with the fall of Assad, Netanyahu’s will would be to review the positions taken fifty years ago. At the moment, in fact, with the Syrian soldiers abandoning their positions, Israel is entrenched behind the danger of having new hostile forces on its borders. The Israeli forces could withdraw, should the new government ensure that the agreements are maintained, but a completely different situation concerns the areas formally annexed since 1981 with an action that was not recognised and condemned by a large part of the international community. For these areas, however, there would be no possibility of withdrawal, as they are considered by Israel as untouchable.
Then there is the increase of Israeli incursions with bombings of various areas of Syria, with the aim of destroying military bases or weapons factories. The obvious objective is to prevent these resources from falling into the wrong hands (meaning: not in favour of Israel); there is, however, an underlying desire to reduce the military capacity of the new Syrian government, so as to secure at least one of the borders. On the other hand, Netanyahu has emphasised that if the members of the new government want to have good relations with Israel, there will be no problem, but if threats arrive, they will switch to defence. It is the Israeli ambassador to the UN Danny Danon himself, in wanting to reassure about the incursion into the Golan, who reports that Israel is not intervening in the ongoing conflict between Syrian groups but is acting only for the security of its borders. In response, the UN envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, called for a halt to Israeli raids and movements.
Of course, in the balances of the region, Israel’s move did not go unnoticed. First and foremost, Iran condemned the advance on the Golan with the Foreign Ministry spokesman speaking of an invasion, also condemning the West’s silence regarding Tel Aviv’s moves. For Saudi Arabia, instead, what Israel has carried out on the Golan would be an operation aimed at undermining the real possibility for the new Syrian government to arrive at the reconquest of its territorial integrity, while Turkey, very close to the new government, speaks of an ‘occupation mentality’, against the possibility for the Syrians to arrive at peace and stability. Even Jordan, at a ten-year peace with Israel, has denounced the invasion; as has Egypt, which complains of violations of international agreements. For the USA, the State Department continues to stress the importance of the ‘temporariness’ of this incursion, while the United Nations reminds us that according to the 1974 agreements there must be no forces or military activities in the demilitarised zone.
A situation that is anything but easy, especially after Israel’s announcements about having hit the Syrian fleet hard. In the coming days, the situation on the Golan could therefore become a key factor in the balance in the area, bringing to the conflict – or negotiation – table the demands of almost all the actors in the region.
RETURNS AND ASYLUM CLAIMS
The European Union has been clear: on asylum for Syrians the competence lies with the member states. This is one issue triggered by the fall of the Assad regime that could bring not a few problems to European chancelleries. With the end of the previous regime, in fact, several EU member states have frozen the procedures for examining asylum applications to the point, in some cases, of considering the repatriation of current exiles. Starting from the borders with Europe, Turkey is preparing to do just that, with the announcement that as many as 20,000 refugees could return to Syria every day after the expansion of border crossing capacities.
In Europe, with the street demonstrations and the change of flags in many embassies, the brake on asylum processing has also come. Germany was the first to impose a halt: with more than 47 thousand applications still to be assessed (in total there were more than 70 thousand in 2024), Scholz decided to take time to assess how the situation was progressing, perhaps also in relation to the behaviour that other chancelleries might take. In fact, there are more than one million Syrians living in Germany, most of them arrived after 2015 with Merkel’s opening up to asylum applications from Syria.
According to UN data, after Germany, the European countries with the highest number of Syrians are Sweden, Austria, Greece, France and the Netherlands. And similar measures are being implemented in all these states. After Berlin, it is Greece and Austria that are putting the brakes on examining applications. Then it is the turn of Norway, Denmark and Sweden. Stockholm also aims at freezing the expulsions pending a better understanding of the situation in Damascus, while Holland could opt for expulsion. Paris did not want to take an alternative position in this case, instead siding with the other chancelleries and temporarily freezing the examination of the requests. This option was also chosen by the United Kingdom, joining the decision taken by some of the EU members. In Italy, a meeting was held at Palazzo Chigi and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni decided to initiate the same measure as a precautionary measure. The Viminale will therefore freeze all pending proceedings, which until today were accepted practically automatically as they concerned citizens from a country at war. In Italy, the rather thorny issue of how to proceed with Syrian citizens who are already on Italian territory was also addressed. Certainly, the unfolding situation does not allow for an immediate decision. It will have to be seen what kind of leadership will be established in Damascus and whether fundamental rights will be guaranteed. For its part, the European Commission has already warned the chancelleries that, at the moment, there would not be the minimum conditions to organise repatriations. This will probably be one of the central themes of the next European Council on 19 December.
Photographer: Tamer A Soliman / Shutterstock.com – ID 2536793511