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Georgia at a Crossroads: An Analysis of the 2024 Parliamentary Elections
The parliamentary elections held on October 26, 2024, in Georgia represent a critical juncture for the country, highlighting deep political divisions and raising questions about its democratic future. The elections, marked by accusations of voter manipulation and foreign influence, have become emblematic of Georgia’s struggle between pro-European aspirations and increasing Russian influence. Below is an in-depth analysis of the key players and implications of this electoral process, which saw the ruling party Georgian Dream claim victory amid ongoing controversies.
The Background: Georgian Dream and Its Controversies
Georgian Dream (GD), led by the influential oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, sought to secure its fourth consecutive term. The party, which has been in power since defeating the United National Movement (UNM) in 2012, has promised to balance its European Union ambitions with a pragmatic relationship with Russia. However, this stance has led to a clear divergence in the political rhetoric, with the Georgian Dream emphasizing “peace” and opposing what it has labeled as “Western interventionist influence,” while simultaneously promoting conservative social policies, such as restricting LGBT rights under its recent “Law on Family Values”.
Georgian Dream’s political maneuvering, including its controversial “foreign agents” law requiring organizations receiving foreign funding to register as agents, has strained relations with Western allies. Both the European Union and the United States responded by imposing financial restrictions and travel bans on senior figures in the Georgian government for undermining democratic norms. Despite this, the party has pushed ahead, using its influence in rural areas to achieve electoral success, even though it lost in key urban centers like Tbilisi.
The rise of Bidzina Ivanishvili as a central figure in Georgian politics cannot be understated. Ivanishvili, a billionaire businessman, has wielded significant influence over Georgian Dream’s policies, even after his formal exit from politics in 2021. His return to active political leadership before the 2024 elections highlighted his continued role as a power broker. His wealth and connections have allowed Georgian Dream to maintain control over the political landscape, with substantial investments in infrastructure and public services aimed at garnering popular support. However, his close ties to Russia have also fueled suspicions about his motivations and the party’s ultimate geopolitical direction.
In addition to its foreign policy stance, Georgian Dream has faced criticism for its handling of domestic issues. The party has been accused of undermining the independence of the judiciary, limiting press freedom, and using state resources to suppress dissent. The 2024 elections were conducted against a backdrop of growing discontent with these policies, with many citizens taking to the streets in protest. The government’s response to these protests, which included the use of force and mass arrests, drew condemnation from international observers and further strained relations with Western partners.
The Opposition Coalitions and the Challenges ahead
The political opposition in Georgia is deeply fragmented, with four major coalitions contesting the elections. Leading these groups is the United National Movement, founded by former President Mikheil Saakashvili, alongside other coalitions such as “Strong Georgia,” led by Mamuka Khazaradze, and “Freedom Square,” a movement that emerged from anti-government protests against GD’s foreign agent legislation. Despite their efforts, these coalitions failed to form a united front, thus complicating their attempts to unseat “Georgian Dream”. The divisions, which reflect ideological and strategic differences, have weakened the opposition’s overall effectiveness.
The United National Movement (UNM), once the dominant political force in Georgia, has struggled to regain its footing since its ouster in 2012. Under the leadership of Mikheil Saakashvili, the party had pushed for rapid modernization and European integration, but its tenure was marred by accusations of authoritarianism and human rights abuses. Saakashvili’s return to Georgian politics, despite being a polarizing figure, has energized parts of the opposition base. However, his controversial past has also made it difficult for the UNM to attract a broader coalition of voters.
The emergence of new political forces, such as “Strong Georgia” and “Freedom Square,” reflects a desire among many Georgians for alternatives to both “Georgian Dream” and the “UNM”. Mamuka Khazaradze, a former banker and leader of “Strong Georgia,” has positioned his party as a centrist, pro-European alternative focused on economic reform and reducing corruption. However, the party’s relatively recent formation and lack of an established political network have limited its reach. Similarly, “Freedom Square,” led by civil society activists, has sought to capitalize on public frustration with the status quo, but its lack of experience in electoral politics has been a significant hurdle.
The election has also highlighted the role of President Salome Zourabichvili, who openly opposed Georgian Dream’s alleged attempts to manipulate the vote. Zourabichvili, who had initially been supported by GD, has distanced herself from the party, refusing to recognize the election results, which she denounced as illegitimate due to alleged vote-buying and ballot stuffing. The “Georgian Charter,” a joint opposition document, lays out a plan for reforms aimed at satisfying EU membership criteria, but the fractured state of the opposition presents significant obstacles to achieving these goals.
The challenges facing the opposition are further compounded by the electoral system itself. The 2024 elections were the first to be held under a fully proportional representation system, with a 5% threshold for parties to enter parliament. While this system was intended to create a more inclusive political environment, it has also led to increased fragmentation, as smaller parties struggle to meet the threshold. The inability of opposition groups to form a cohesive alliance has allowed Georgian Dream to maintain a dominant position, despite losing significant support in urban areas.
The Stakes: European Integration vs. Russian Influence
At stake in these elections is Georgia’s broader geopolitical orientation. Georgian Dream, despite its pro-European rhetoric, has been accused by opposition groups of aligning with Russian interests, particularly in the wake of controversial partnerships with China and Iran. This dual approach has left Georgia at risk of deeper Russian influence, a concern amplified by the 20% of its territory currently occupied by Russian forces following the 2008 war.
The strategic importance of Georgia cannot be overlooked. Situated at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Georgia has long been a focal point of competition between Western powers and Russia. The country’s aspirations to join the European Union and NATO have been met with resistance from Moscow, which views Georgia’s alignment with the West as a threat to its sphere of influence. The 2024 elections have brought these tensions to the forefront, with Georgian Dream’s ambiguous stance on Russia raising questions about the country’s future direction.
The West, led by the EU and the United States, has expressed concern over Georgia’s political trajectory, warning that its recent actions jeopardize its EU candidacy. In response to Georgian Dream’s actions, the European Union has de facto frozen Georgia’s EU membership status pending democratic reforms. For many Georgians, the 2024 elections were seen as a referendum on whether to align with Western democracies or tilt towards Moscow.
The influence of external actors has also played a significant role in shaping the electoral landscape. The United States and European Union have been vocal in their criticism of Georgian Dream’s policies, particularly regarding the “foreign agents” law and restrictions on civil liberties. In contrast, Russia has maintained a more subdued approach, quietly supporting Georgian Dream’s efforts to maintain stability while opposing Western influence. The involvement of China and Iran, both of which have sought to expand their presence in the region, further complicates Georgia’s foreign policy choices.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Georgian Democracy
The aftermath of the 2024 parliamentary elections leaves Georgia in a precarious position. Georgian Dream’s hold on power has been marred by accusations of authoritarianism, while the opposition remains splintered and unable to form a cohesive challenge. The significant public protests against the ruling party indicate a strong desire among many citizens to pursue European integration. However, the government’s approach to dealing with opposition and civil liberties has drawn comparisons to Russian tactics, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the Country.
The role of civil society in Georgia’s democratic development has never been more crucial. Despite the challenges posed by restrictive legislation and government pressure, non-governmental organizations and grassroots movements have continued to advocate for transparency, human rights, and political accountability. The protests that erupted in response to the 2024 election results are a testament to the strong will of Georgian civil society and its determination to hold the government accountable.
In a nation at the crossroads of Europe and Russia, the decisions made in the coming months will shape the future path for Georgia—whether it will embrace European values and democratic principles or continue down a path of political consolidation under Georgian Dream, risking increased influence from Moscow. The international community’s response, along with the actions of Georgian leaders and citizens, will be pivotal in determining whether Georgia can overcome its current challenges and realize its aspirations for a democratic, European future.
The 2024 elections have underscored the fragility of Georgia’s democracy and the complexities of its geopolitical positioning. As the country grapples with internal divisions and external pressures, the path forward remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the choices made now will have lasting implications not only for Georgia but for the broader region, as the struggle between democratic values and authoritarian influence continues to play out on the global stage.